It might still be early in the 2024 NFL season, but ESPN is already optimistic about the Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl chances. According to the outlet’s updated playoff projections, Buffalo ranks second in several key categories, giving fans plenty of reason to look ahead to February. ESPN’s model gives the Bills an 89% chance to make the playoffs, a 69% shot at winning the AFC East, a 27% chance to earn a first-round bye, and a 20% chance to make Super Bowl LIX.
These numbers are second only to the Kansas City Chiefs, who narrowly edge out the Bills with a 91% playoff probability and a 22% shot at the Super Bowl. Houston Texans also slightly outperform Buffalo in divisional odds at 75%, thanks to the weak AFC South. But otherwise, the Bills are sitting comfortably near the top of the league through two weeks of play.
Buffalo’s strong start has helped boost their postseason odds. In Week 1, quarterback Josh Allen led a thrilling comeback victory against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for 232 yards and rushing for 39 more while accounting for four total touchdowns in a 34-28 win. Week 2 saw running back James Cook take center stage with three touchdowns as the Bills dominated the Miami Dolphins 31-10. Buffalo’s defense has also shined, giving up only 13 points in their last six quarters, with cornerbacks Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas standing out.
Despite offseason concerns about key departures—including Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer—the Bills haven’t missed a beat. Their offensive and defensive schemes remain sharp and dynamic, positioning them as one of the league’s top teams yet again.
In the race for the AFC East, the New York Jets follow with a 25% chance of winning the division, while the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots trail far behind at 3%. With a promising start, the Bills are well on their way to a potential sixth consecutive playoff appearance and a fifth straight division title. While much can change over the course of the season, Buffalo’s early performances indicate they’ll be a team to watch as the playoffs approach.
