Halfway through the 2024 season, the West Virginia Mountaineers remain a team that is difficult to assess. With three losses to undefeated, top-25 teams, it’s unclear whether they are a good team struggling against tough competition or one that can only beat weaker opponents.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predictor has also had difficulty getting a consistent read on West Virginia’s chances, particularly against Kansas State. The FPI has fluctuated significantly over time. Before the season started, it gave West Virginia a 47.5% chance of winning against Kansas State. This number dropped to 32.3% at the start of Big 12 play, then rose to 37.8% before a dominant win over Oklahoma State. After that game, it spiked to 48.9%, but now sits at 43.2%, with Kansas State holding a 56.8% edge.
For once, the FPI may have it right. Despite head coach Neal Brown’s poor record against top-25 opponents, West Virginia has pulled off two victories over Kansas State in the past, and the Wildcats were ranked during both. Earlier in the season, West Virginia faced negativity after a collapse in the Backyard Brawl, but bounced back with a win over Kansas and an easy victory over Oklahoma State. While an upset against Kansas State seems unlikely, it’s not out of the question for West Virginia to leave Milan Puskar Stadium with a win.
The FPI has been relatively accurate in predicting West Virginia’s games this season, boasting a 5-1 record. The only misstep was its prediction for the Oklahoma State game. Interestingly, it changed its prediction for the Backyard Brawl from West Virginia to Pitt in the week leading up to the game, which Pitt ended up winning. The predictor has also been spot-on with close games, like when it gave West Virginia a 50.6% chance of beating Kansas, a contest that went down to the wire.
If the FPI proves accurate again this week, West Virginia will fall to 3-17 under Neal Brown against ranked opponents and 3-4 overall for the season. For the Mountaineers to stay in contention through November, they must find a way to win against Kansas State this Saturday, with the game kicking off at 7:30 p.m. EST on FOX.
