Alabama football is practically assured a spot in the College Football Playoff if SMU defeats Clemson this Saturday. However, momentum is building for the Crimson Tide to secure a playoff berth regardless of the outcome of the ACC Championship.
When the College Football Playoff committee ranked Alabama No. 11 on Tuesday, it nearly guaranteed the Tide’s playoff chances, as long as SMU beats Clemson. A Clemson win, though, could potentially open the door for two ACC teams in the playoff, with SMU ranked three spots higher than Alabama at No. 8. A victory for SMU would place Alabama in the playoff without any drama, while a Clemson win would leave the Tide’s fate uncertain.
The committee is likely hoping for an SMU victory to simplify the decision. A Clemson win would force the committee into a difficult choice, potentially setting a dangerous precedent for future seasons. If Alabama gets in over SMU, it could undermine the significance of playing in a conference championship game, as SMU would have been in the playoff without having to compete in an extra game. Conversely, if SMU gets in ahead of Alabama, it would send a message that strength of schedule no longer matters, as the Mustangs played one of the weakest schedules in the Power-5 conferences.
Such a scenario could have nationwide implications, with athletic directors possibly canceling non-conference games to avoid the risk of losing out on a playoff spot, regardless of the strength of their opponents. This could be detrimental to college football and fans alike.
As of now, Alabama’s playoff chances are strong, with the AllState Playoff Predictor giving the Tide an 86% chance of making the playoff. An SMU win would increase their chances to 99.7%, while a Clemson win still leaves Alabama with a 72% chance.
The controversy over Alabama being ranked ahead of Miami on Tuesday was just the beginning. If Alabama makes the playoff over SMU, following a Clemson win, the fallout could be unforgettable.
