The Third Saturday in October always carries extra fire, but this year’s Alabama vs. Tennessee clash has a sharper edge — and the numbers back up why the Crimson Tide are clear favorites.
According to FanDuel, Alabama enters the matchup as a 9.5-point favorite over Tennessee, with other sportsbooks setting the line around 8.5. For a top-15 showdown, that’s a bold spread — yet entirely justified when you dig into the details.
Both teams boast 5-1 records, but not all wins are created equal. Alabama’s journey has been tougher, having beaten three ranked opponents en route to midseason dominance. Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn’t secured a single win against a currently ranked team. According to ESPN’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) metrics, the Vols sit at No. 47, while Alabama’s brutal schedule ranks second toughest in the nation.
That discrepancy tells the real story. Tennessee’s narrow 34–31 win over Arkansas last weekend looked decent on paper — until you look closer. The Razorbacks outgained the Vols in total yards (496–485) and likely would have stolen the game if not for three second-half turnovers. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green threw for 256 yards, while running back Mike Washington Jr. gashed Tennessee’s defense for 131 yards at an average of 6.9 per carry.
That’s alarming news for the Vols as they prepare to face an Alabama offense that’s finally finding rhythm under quarterback Ty Simpson, who has elevated his play week after week. Tennessee’s defense, statistically average against the run and shaky through the air, hasn’t proven it can handle an offense with Alabama’s balance, pace, and physicality.
Even Tennessee’s strengths come with caveats. Star running back DeShean Bishop rushed for 146 yards against Arkansas — but those numbers came against one of the SEC’s weakest defenses. When faced with a unit like Alabama’s, which ranks among the best nationally in defensive efficiency, space to run will be scarce.
Simply put, the Tide are battle-tested; the Vols are unproven. Nick Saban’s defense thrives in big moments, and Alabama’s superior depth, discipline, and strength of schedule make them a justifiable two-score favorite heading into Knoxville.
The message is clear: the oddsmakers aren’t being generous — they’re being realistic.
When the Tide roll into Neyland Stadium, Tennessee will discover firsthand why Alabama’s reputation as the SEC’s measuring stick remains untouchable.
